Methodology

The Global Tension Index (GTI) measures geopolitical tension by analyzing defense and security news through AI-powered classification. The index uses z-scores against a 30-day rolling baseline to detect anomalies in activity levels.

Domain Weights:

• Nuclear (25%) - Nuclear weapons, tests, arms control, deterrence
• Military (25%) - Troops, exercises, operations, deployments
• Incident (20%) - Accidents, collisions, shootdowns, border clashes
• Cyber (10%) - Hacking, infrastructure attacks, information warfare
• Diplomatic (10%) - Sanctions, diplomacy, alliances, negotiations
• Economic (10%) - Defense spending, procurement, trade

A score of 50 represents the 30-day average. Higher scores indicate increased tension relative to recent history.